The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a stark warning that up to 35 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season, the highest figure ever recorded, as jihadist attacks and banditry continue to devastate farming communities across the north.

The forecast, based on the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis, highlights nearly six million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states likely to reach crisis-level hunger (Phase 3 or worse) between June and August 2026. Within that group, about 15,000 residents of Borno are expected to slip into catastrophic Phase 5 conditions — the threshold for famine.

WFP Country Director David Stevenson described northern Nigeria as enduring its worst hunger crisis in a decade. “Communities are deteriorating under severe pressure from repeated attacks and economic stress,” he said, warning that insurgent groups such as Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) are exploiting hunger to expand their influence.

The crisis is compounded by a severe funding shortfall. WFP has already scaled back nutrition programmes in the northeast since July, cutting support to more than 300,000 children, and warns it will exhaust resources for emergency food and nutrition assistance by December 2025 unless new donations arrive urgently.

Malnutrition rates have spiked from “serious” to “critical” in states where clinics have closed, particularly Borno, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara — now recording the highest child malnutrition levels nationwide. Aid officials and local leaders say violence, displacement, and soaring food prices have trapped millions in a vicious cycle, forcing families to sell assets or withdraw children from school to survive.

Without significant increases in humanitarian funding and improved security, experts fear the 2026 lean season could push large parts of northern Nigeria toward famine-like conditions reminiscent of the Boko Haram crisis a decade ago.